I do software and strategy.
James has made $100k in bitcoin, and prevented a $100k loss in a sushi restaurant. Here's his framework.
Why are we afraid of failure? Because we evolved to be afraid of lions.
James had a stupid investment, but he didn't die!
Assume 100% of the downside risk goes to zero and only take bets you can handle walking away from
Consider the implications of your actions on a 20 year macro and reason through the 2nd & 3rd order effects
James taught himself business from TV, which helped him be cautious of a restaurant investment broker who didn't know the numbers.
Every bet has risk and reward.
The formula for expected value is:
(Total Upside * Probability) – Opportunity Cost = Expected Value
($1,000,000 * 25% chance) - $0 = +$250,000 Positive Expected Value
More realistic case:
($1,000,000 * 25% chance) - $100,000 = +$150,000 +EV
What If you…
…for 300 years?
I'm sending out a beautiful PDF eBook of notes from every MicroConf 2018 Starter and Growth talk – both Speaker and Attendee. Want a copy?